Layton’s death was particularly shocking as he was in his political prime. He was popular, his party managed to achieve a historic breakthrough and he would have been poised to become the first ndp prime minister in Canada’s history. Now the ndp’s success could evaporate as suddenly as it materialised — this is doubly true with the perceived architect of last election’s result gone. To understand what the next ndp leader is up against, it would help to determine what exactly Layton’s “legacy” was. Some have dubbed him a “visionary.” Some, like the Globe and Mail’s Jeffrey Simpson, strongly dispute that claim. It is true that he did not differ, in any radical sense, from the party mainstream. If anything, he brought it closer to the centre.
Yet, his message clearly resonated with the electorate, which returned the ndp with 103 seats, more than double the number that Ed Broadbent had managed in the 1980s. What resonated was Layton successfully contrasting himself with Stephen Harper. The ndp offered hope and respect. Harper and the Tories offered negativity and attack ads. The ndp offered openness and democracy, the Conservatives offered prorogation and quasi-dictatorship. Most of the ndp leader’s success can be traced to his skill as a campaigner. He had no grand plan akin to Trudeau’s “Just Society,” but he was offering an optimistic yet pragmatic alternative to the governing status quo. Unfortunately for whoever is to succeed Layton as leader, the cult of personality surrounding the former leader has already been embedded into mainstream political consciousness and it will be impossible for the new leader to live up to the public expectations while mimicking Layton’s style.
The more complex question, however, is a regional one. Canada’s politics have always been regionalist — West versus East, Anglophone versus Francophone, urban versus rural. Generally, it had been thought that support in Quebec and Ontario was necessary and sufficient to form a majority government in Canada — after all, that’s why the Liberals were so successful. However, the paradigm may be shifting — Harper’s Conservatives managed to win a majority government with only 16 percent support and five seats in Quebec. The ndp, on the other hand, did exceptionally well in Quebec for the first time in the party’s history. The “Orange Wave” started in Quebec and, in many ways, was largely confined to that province, considering the ndp did not significantly improve their seat-count elsewhere. Support in Quebec, however, is a mixed blessing. Not only can it disappear overnight (as the Bloc Quebecois found out), but it comes with decades of nationalist baggage. Of course the ndp shouldn’t abandon Quebec, but it needs to establish itself as a federalist presence built on social democracy rather than a Bloc clone built on nationalism. Failure to do so could come at the heavy price of western alienation.
With the renewed focus on Quebec, people ignored the emerging influence of the West. Quebec gave the ndp opposition status, but the west gave the Conservatives a majority government. The new ndp leader, however, can take advantage of this by chipping away at the Tory power base. With the exception of Alberta, the ndp has had historical support in the western provinces. Despite the party’s current weakness in the prairies, it is in an excellent position in British Columbia: some well-established and competent caucus members represent b.c. ridings, the provincial ndp is fairing relatively well in public opinion and the province has a larger urban population than the prairie provinces, which works in favour of progressive parties. Somebody capable of patiently cultivating that base would be an ideal leader.
While region no longer plays as important a role in Canadian politics as it once did (and it should by no means be the only factor at play in the ndp leadership election), it remains vital to winning elections. The new leader must carefully tread the line between regional and national appeal — no easy task. In addition, the new leader will have to be sufficiently different from Jack Layton without alienating those voters who were drawn into voting for the ndp due to the former leader’s style of politics. In short, the new leader must have a connection with both the West and Quebec, hold an important enough portfolio within the caucus to be qualified, yet be enough of a “blank slate” to the public that Layton’s replacement isn’t judged by the Layton standard. Under these criteria, Peter Julian, the mp for Burnaby-New Westminister, critic for international trade and fully bilingual graduate of the Universite du Quebec à Montreal is a perfect example of the type of leader the ndp needs.
Considering the challenges of redefining the ndp along ideological as well as regional lines and filling Layton’s shoes, it’s a wonder that anybody even wants the job. The ndp has more to gain as well as more to lose than the party has ever had. Much can go wrong for the ndp without Layton. However, if the cards are played right during the leadership convention, the “Orange Wave” could just be the beginning of the Dipper’s success story.