With the Major League Baseball season soon upon us, resident Gauntlet baseball-buff Joshua Goard-Baker gives his two cents on the off-season happenings and his predictions for the 2008 prizewinners.
The off-season has been so jam-packed with interesting side stories that it is hard to believe, that as of this writing, we are less than a week away from opening day. The Mitchell Report and its allegations of steroid use have taken away from a game that has been growing in popularity ever since the 1994 lockout–the year the Expos should have won the World Series. Now the Expos are gone and Canada is left with one team that always seems to be on the edge of competitiveness, but in the American League east, it takes more than just talent to compete–take, for example, a $200 million payroll. If Rogers Sportsnet Pacific has anything to say about it and Canada does actually possess a second team, they are located one hour south of the border in Vancouver’s quasi-sister city, Seattle. The Mariners did make a splash in the off-season, acquiring some Canadian flavour (or flavor, depending on who you talk to). Ontario’s own Eric Bedard was set free from the chains that bound him in one of America’s ugliest cities, Baltimore. Not only does that city have one of the highest murder rates in the United States, it also has a baseball team that will finish last in the American League, not just the east. The Orioles jettisoned Bedard, Miguel Tejada and respectability in the off-season, replaced with the requisite claims of organizational rebuilding.
This preview will encompass the American League only, considering that there is only one or two teams in the National League capable of competing for the world title. However, as spring training has worn on, the Mets have lost almost everyone of their stars to some type of injury and now have more holes than the ozone layer. Not even the acquisition of Johan Santana, which resulted in the depletion of their farm system, will be able to save New York’s other team. So, without further ado, the following will be a ranking of American League teams, in the order of their finish and some of the reasons for that finish.
Boston Red Sox
The 2007 world champions did not skip a beat over the off-season. They are the deepest, most complete and possibly best team MLB has seen in the last 15 years. From top to bottom, their offence will pound that ball against any pitching staff in the American League. Over the off-season, “Red Sox Nation” re-signed Mike Lowell, decided to keep Manny Ramirez, kept Johan Santana away from the Yankees, and, basically, reserved the status quo. Teams usually can’t go through an off-season with limited player movement and expect to repeat championships, but that is just what the Red Sox did. With a strong farm system brimming with young pitchers and position players, the Red Sox might have actually gotten stronger without any significant signings. Clay Bucholz and Jon Lester, at the back end of the Red Sox rotation, represent an upgrade over an aging Curt Shilling. The only question mark for this team might be in the bullpen. Jonathan Papelbon and his atrocious dancing anchor the bullpen with Japanese import Hideki Okajima as the eighth-inning answer. Other than that, Mike Timlin, Julian Tavarez, Manny Delcarman, Javy Lopez and Kyle Snyder don’t necessarily strike fear in the hearts of American League hitters. This may be the only way the Red Sox will falter in 2008, but if their starters make it to the sixth or seventh inning, then it is lights out for opponents.
Biggest surprise prediction for ’08: J.D. Drew, the one mistake the Red Sox have made in the last few years will continue to be less than spectacular in his red socks.
No surprise prediction for ’08: Josh Beckett is, and will be, good. Really good.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
They have a really bad name, but this is the only team in the American League who might challenge the Boston Red Sox in the win column. Over the off-season, the Angels scored centre fielder Torii Hunter and will look to him to repeat his 25-plus homer and 100-plus RBI production. Add Hunter to a lineup that consists of Bad Vlad Guererro, Gary Matthews Jr., Casey Kotchman, Garret Anderson, future all-star Howie Kendrick, Chone Figgins and Juan Rivera and they will score runs. This is a team that has always had some exceptional starting and relief pitching, but has been searching for run producers. The bullpen is still exceptional, but now the only question mark lies in the starting rotation. Injuries have depleted the once-talented core of the Angels and Kelvim Escobar and John Lackey are both facing time on the DL. It is now left up to youngster Ervin Santana, who possesses a wealth of natural talent but has never really lived up to the hype. The addition of Jon Garland over the off-season does provide some stability and the continued development of Jered Weaver will make this team a very tough opponent in the American League. The Angels will easily win the west and should be playing in the American League championship series come Oct.
Biggest surprise prediction for ’08: Not much of a surprise if you follow the Angels, but Howie Kendrick hits .330-plus with 20-plus homers and 100-plus RBIs.
No surprise prediction for ’08: Vlad Guerrero settles into his new DH role and becomes an even more prolific RBI man.
Detroit Tigers
This team was the laughing stock of the American League for so many years, but now look what a little money and some good drafting can do for you. The off-season brought the biggest name into the Motor City when Miguel Cabrera found his way out of Miami and is now sitting nicely in the middle of the Tigers batting order. As a throw in to the deal, Dontrelle Willis, who not so long ago was thought to be one of the best young throwers in the league, is now anchoring the back end of the Tigers rotation. This team is as deep as any in the American League, but is now searching for a table setter with the recent injury to Curtis Granderson. Reports suggest that recent Blue Jay castoff Reed Johnson could be looked at as a replacement, along with bionic man Kenny Lofton, who is still searching for work. The Tigers are at a win-now stage and have given up most of their future in the hopes that a world championship is in the cards in the near future. With this in mind, any significant injuries over the course of the season might set this team on a downward spiral, especially injuries to the starting rotation. Kenny Rogers is not getting any younger and there isn’t much in the farm system to be found as a replacement. The Tigers must also find a spot for clubhouse leader Brandon Inge who has expressed interest in leaving the Tigers after his starting job was given to Cabrera.
Biggest surprise prediction for ’08: Cabrera falters against American League pitching, but the Tigers still have enough offence to win the American League Central.
No surprise prediction for ’08: Kenny Rogers makes less than 20 starts and retires near or at the end of the season.
Things get dicey from here on and there are really five teams that could possibly win the wild card in the American League. Should the Tigers run into injury problems, the Cleveland Indians will most certainly supplant them in the central division. There is always something to be said for a sentimental pick and here it is: the Toronto Blue Jays will win the American League wild card. Now that you’ve stopped laughing, let me back up my claim.
Toronto Blue Jays
This team was thought to have one of the best offences in 2007, but forecasters said they would be hampered by shoddy starting pitching and a paper-thin bullpen. Well, nobody was right. The offence was horrendous and faced a rising tide of injuries throughout the season. The only constant was found in Frank Thomas clogging up the base paths. What wasn’t expected was the discovery of the best pitching staff in the American League. Now that the calendar has turned to 2008, the Jays are hoping for the same production from their young hurlers and a return to form from what should be a potent offence. Roy Halladay, who is the best pitcher in Major League baseball right now, but who has always seemed to run into fluke injuries over the last few years, anchors the rotation. Halladay should win another Cy Young before his career is over and 2008 might be his year. Behind him lay the question marks. If the casual observer only looks at talent, A.J. Burnett and Dustin McGowan have two of the best arms in baseball, but Burnett cannot seem to put together a healthy season and McGowan is only scratching the surface of a young career. Past that, Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litch are two more young pitchers who have had great results early in their careers, but might be overachieving. In the bullpen, Jeremy Accardo emerged in the absence of B.J. Ryan and saved 30 games in 2007. Behind him, Scott Downs, Brandon League, Brian Wolfe, Randy Wells, Jason Frasor and Brian Tallet are all capable relievers and most were part of the bullpen that had one of the lowest ERAs in 2007. They must however rebound from the loss of Casey Janssen, but that should be offset by the return of Ryan sometime in early May. The offence is where the Blue Jays should find their resurgence in 2008 with the addition of Scott Rolen, David Eckstein, Shannon Stewart, Rod Barajas and Marco Scutaro, making this the deepest lineup the Jays have had in a number of years. Aaron Hill and Alex Rios are budding stars and Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay should both enjoy better years after an injury-filled 2007. If everything comes together, the Jays will win the wild card but things rarely happen this way and they might even be supplanted by the Tampa Rays in the American League east. All the same, my sentimental pick is for the Jays to be playing Oct. baseball for the first time since 1993.
Biggest surprise prediction for ’08: Scott Rolen returns to his 2004 form now that he has returned to health.
No surprise prediction for ’08: Frank Thomas is nearing the end and the Jays will have to realize that Adam Lind at Triple A is a better producer than Thomas will be at this stage of his career.
The rest
The remainder of the teams in the American League will shape up as follows. In the American League east, the Yankees and the Rays will both challenge for second place in the division. The Rays are on the cusp of being a power in the American League and have a prospect that won’t miss in Evan Longoria. The Yankees are the Yankees and, as usual, are thin in the starting rotation but should hit the most homeruns in the American League and score enough runs to offset their deficiencies in pitching. The Orioles are going to be bad–really bad, rivaling the Tigers teams of the ’90s–and could possibly lose 100 games. In the central division, the Cleveland Indians are another team that will challenge for the wild card and might bolster their win totals playing in a division that includes the Kansas City Royals, Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins.
The west is harder to predict. The Oakland Athletics are seemingly always in the race come Sep., but are again trying to unload their young pitching to remain with the money ball philosophy. The Texas Rangers did nothing significant in the off-season and will not be able to compete against most of the teams in the American League. The Seattle Mariners are the question mark of the west, as they have a very strong rotation but probably won’t be able to score enough runs to really make a mark.